June 28, 2010 – There are two thoughts running rampant after the NBA draft. The first is who are the “haves” for 2010-11 and who are the “have nots?” The draft has little to do with a team’s one-year improvement, although there will be those projecting change based on this year’s new players.

A quick review of the 2009-10 draft will remind us that Blake Griffin didn’t play. That second pick Hasheem Thabeet went to the minors. That third pick James Harden didn’t really factor for the Thunder, but Tyreke Evans (Kings) at #4, and Stephen Curry (Warriors) at #7 would have made Oklahoma City even more of a “new blood” sensation.

After that, Ricky Rubio (T-Wolves) stayed in Europe while Jonny Flynn learned to play in the NBA the hard way. Jordan Hill, the Knicks first pick in years, got traded, and Brandon Jennings (Bucks) proved everyone in the Knicks scouting department wrong. Austin Daye (Pistons), Jrue Holiday (76ers) and Ty Lawson (Nuggets) had typical rookie seasons. Earning some trust, getting some time, showing promise and then hitting the bench when crunch time rolled around. Darren Collison gained value backing up for the injured Chris Paul in New Orleans and Chicago’s Taj Gibson banged for the Bulls to win the “best value award” at #26. The Spurs’ DeJuan Blair and Pistons Jonas Jerebko surprised everyone from the second round.

Thirty first round picks and maybe Evans, Curry and Jennings made a difference. So as you anticipate 2010-11, the rise and fall of the playoff elite will likely have to do with much more than the draft.

In the West, Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Portland and San Antonio will struggle to hold their playoff positions. Age, injury, leadership changes and defections will take their toll. The good news is that after Houston, New Orleans and maybe the Clippers, there aren’t any pretenders. Oklahoma, San Antonio and Portland all made the last three western postseason spots with 50-32 records. Houston was left out with a 42-40 mark.

In the East, Chicago bounced into the playoffs on the last day with a .500 record. New blood was provided by Charlotte and Milwaukee. Detroit, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana fell on hard times. In 2010-11 Cleveland could implode and Boston get old while Atlanta gets sold. The free agencies of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson will factor into next season’s playoff mix. Handcapping this division will be impossible until the rosters stabilize. Here’s our best shot at the East’s early prospects:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

The Boston Celtics fell four points short without Kendrick Perkins, without a well-constructed bench, with tiring legs and a coach who was thinking about not coming back. Rajon Rondo is the piece that the Celtics will build around. Paul Pierce has some years left and he’ll retire a Celtic, but he’ll have to adapt to a new act without the ball, wheelchairs or his chippy habits. Kevin Garnett may be worn out, but if he can revitalize his body for the long haul, he could come off the bench the way they intended for the retired Rasheed Wallace. Ray Allen remains a mystery, a nice fit in homeland New England, a nice outside shooter to compliment Rondo. But he’s old, expensive and has proven he can get lost for long periods of time. Allen’s spot remains the one place where Danny Ainge needs to import along with another wide body to go with Perkins?, Big Baby and the spotty Garnett. The prospect of replacing Doc Rivers, isn’t quite the drama as they have in Lakerville. Lots of guys could step in especially if Ainge supplements the bench and comes up with another star to pit with Rondo and two old guys. Texas’ Avery Bradley is an interesting first rounder as is Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody in the second. These two represent the new blood this team needs. It’s just risky counting on rookies. Look for Ainge to try for another blockbuster piece (Rip Hamilton, Tyson Chandler) to replace Kendrick Perkins, Allen and Rasheed.

Let’s see, Cleveland doesn’t have a coach, they have a new GM, they were rejected by a classy college coach, they await word from The King, and they have a hodge-podge of blended talent and misfits in need of stabilization because that boat on Lake Erie is “a-rockin.” Best case is that LeBron stays home after a summer of love provided by suitors from Bron’s version of Woodstock. Instead of three days of peace, love and music, its three months of price, love and hip-hop.

But the return of LeBron only assures another pennant contender, not a World Series. Shaq will be gone and who knows how Z Ilgauskas will respond to being tossed last year. Anderson Varejao is another repeat offender as far as providing something new and winning. Only a full year of Antawn Jamison holds any real hope, but he had time to prove himself as the Cavs fell to Boston, and didn’t. A host of supporters ranging from Delonte West, Mo Williams, JJ Hickson, Daniel Gibson, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon round out the roster. Last year’s #1 pick, Christian Eyenga from the Europe by way of the Congo does not spell reinforcement. The point guards, Williams and West will get the most scrutiny. Piecing together the front court will come mostly from the current roster. Some cleansing and a commitment to another complimentary option to LeBron will likely be what James asks for and gets. If he choose elsewhere, best for Dan Gilbert to consult the Ted Stepien handbook about what not to do to survive in Cleveland.

Put another ornament on the tree for the Orlando Magic. Last year, it was Vince Carter. But they let go a chemical to their 2009 playoff run, Hedo Turkoglu, that they need to get back. Maybe, Toronto will be happy to oblige considering how horribly Hedo played in Canada. But the pressure is on to at least find an imitation of a guy who can drive and score on the inside and hurt you if you don’t cover him on the outside. No Orlando, that’s not Vince Carter anymore. Maybe 29th pick C Daniel Orton will help by freeing up Marcin Gortat for a trade for a useful part. They still have Dwight Howard and he can still get better at shooting free throws.

Depending on whom you ask, Pat Riley currently has two guys on his Miami Heat roster, Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley, who he’s willing to give up on. FA Dwyane Wade and sidekicks are the future here. With Chicago and the Heat amassing cap space, these two teams are armed to turn the east upside down. Our guess is that Wade stays home and brings someone with him (Chris Bosh), but the Chicago plan is for LeBron and Bosh to become Bulls. Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer and some others who can option out are the fall back boys. Keep in mind, it takes five to tango and Wade has shown the effects of what injury can do to his game.

The Chicago Bulls are working overtime to overcome owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s rep as a cheap ogre. Derrick Rose is the magnet in place and Chicago has the goods that LeBron is looking for. Playing in Michael Jordan’s shadow may be a good thing or a bad thing. As said above, LeBron hopes to bring Chris Bosh along for the ride. Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson are unlikely additional parts being portrayed as assets. The Bulls will need to round out their roster and provide depth. New coach Tom Thibideau will stress defense and feel the pressure. How they surround the stars holds the key to their success. Even with Bosh and Rose, the Bulls could end up being built a lot like last year’s Cavs. Without Bron, Bosh becomes the the main event along with another max capper. The issue here is that the Bulls will need to react fast and mistakes could ensue.

The Milwaukee Bucks were the surprise of the league, playoff participants, and without SG Michael Redd and C Andrew Bogut. PG Brandon Jennings and mid-season pickup John Salmons blossomed in coach Scott Skiles’ system. Now they’ve added 6-11 PF Larry Sanders from VCU, another step forward, although Redd and Salmons are free to test the market. Bogut and Jennings form the heart of this team.

Chances of Joe Johnson staying with the Atlanta Hawks are slim. So Al Horford, Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford will lead the way. Draft pick Jordan Crawford is another shooter, but they traded SF Damion James to the Nets whom we’ll keep an eye on. The Hawks are under the financial gun, have a new coach in Larry Drew and will count on GM Rick Sund to find parts to supplement their nucleus.

Michael Jordan is spending his time getting his arms around his Charlotte Bobcats while maybe the biggest asset to their playoff run, coach Larry Brown, finds himself again. Jordan is not going to react, not with a major chunk of financial responsibility on his porch for maybe the first time since he went “Air.” Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace are probably the best players of a group of nomads. Jordan and GM Rod Higgins will assemble an affordable cast and plot the future by creating cap space for the next big thing. Look for Charlotte to be affordable, ordinary and “play the right way.”

The Detroit Pistons are being lauded for their draft, getting C/PF Greg Monroe with the 7th pick and well-buzzed G Tirrico White from Ole Miss in the second. White is reminiscent of GM Joe Dumars, a sturdy guard from the south who can shoot, handle and play defense. Monroe may encourage Ben Wallace to re-up for another year after a significant comeback last year. The Pistons spent their cap load on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva last season. Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamiliton are tradeable with Darren Daye and Gordon on the roster. The Pistons could rise back to the playoff ranks due to the fall of Cleveland, Atlanta and Charlotte. They needed post help last year and look to DaJuan Summers, Jason Maxiell, surprising Jonas Jerebko and Monroe to provide it. Keep an eye on PG Will Bynum as Chauncey Billups’ heir apparent, Rodney Stuckey, still seems inconsistent.

The New Jersey Nets continue to get blasted as the NBA’s worst. Several changes have taken place following their 12-win season, the least of which is new ownership in the form of Russian obliarch Mikhail Prokhorov . The team also moves to Newark and the newish Prudential Center which will give the Nets a home with a neighborhood around it. Avery Johnson will bring defense as the new head coach. 6-7 24th pick SF Damion Jones from Texas is a mystery, but #3 pick PF Derrick Favors, is about to turn 19, and has destiny dripping off his 6-10 body. The team will build around C Brook Lopez and PG Devin Harris for now. They will also be after a prime free agent while being nearly $30 million under the cap. The multitude of moves is being orchestrated by Prokhorov and GM/President Rod Thorn, who is on his way out. Kind of a mystery there. Perhaps he saw “The Russians Are Coming,” he tired out, or it’s true that his wife wanted him to quit. The ejection of Kiki Vandweghe after one year may have not set well either. Supporting cast now includes MVP Kris Humphries and last year’s #1 from Louisville, Terrence Williams. The Nets may miss out on the 2010 FAs and keep their bucks for next year. Newark native Shaquille O’Neal could spell Lopez and provide an attraction to the Pru, while the Nets await their destined resting place in Brooklyn.

The New York Knicks’ Donny Walsh cleaned up Isiah Thomas’ mess by surrendering 2008 through 2011, but will not have the goods to lure LeBron James to Madison Square Garden. Walsh may settle for Joe Johnson. Teaming Johnson with Danilo Gallinari and Mike D’Antoni’s offense will not be much of an improvement. Walsh will be hard pressed to make another move while reserving cap space for Carmelo Anthony’s free agency in 2011. If Amare Stoudemire opts out, maybe a “Phoenix East” can be created in Manhattan. But without a point guard like Steve Nash, the Garden should remain a gloomy place for basketball for at least another year.

The Philadelphia 76ers will parade new coach Doug Collins, new draft choice Evan Turner and enigmatic best player Andre Iguodala out to restore the pride in Philly. Point guard Jrue Holliday will be a pivotal piece in Collins’ makeup, as will probably-over-the-hill PF Elton Brand, who seems to be getting a trial due to all the money invested in him. The trade of C Sam Dalembert was curious because the post will be the Sixers big hole, but Dalembert was limited and new options will be tried by Collins.

John Wall and Gilbert Arenas in the Washingrton Wizards backcourt seems appealing to us. While everyone has written Arenas off as a whack and what ultimately will be a bad influence on the development of Wall, coach Flip Saunders needs to prepare for NBA war and that backcourt could be the team’s strength. A curious trade brought Kirk Heinrich to spell Arenas? The rest of the lineup is in for big turnover with 11 free agents dotting the roster. Yi Jianlian will bring the Chinese crowd but French big Kevin Seraphin (#17) won’t help for a few years. New ownership will afford some patience and GM Ernie Grunfield will need to scour what he has and the remnants of the tsunami of player movement this summer to put together a team. Nearly $20 mill in cap room will help.

The Toronto Raptors will lose Chris Bosh. They selected UNC’s Ed Davis who may deaden the sting. Other than that, the Raptors are a Euro version of an NBA team with few stars. GM Brian Colangelo and Coach Jay Triano steer the ship that is led now by two Euros, C Andrea Barnani and PG Jose Calderon. Ricky Rubio may be a fit here. Hedo Turkoglu was a bust and the Raps may cut their losses there.

Larry Bird’s Indiana Pacers are leading the league in small forwards. Captain Danny Granger leads the way followed by Mike Dunleavy, Dahntay Jones and #1 pick (#10 overall) Paul George from Fresno State. Add rookie Lance Stephenson and Brandon Rush to the mix and well, you get the picture. Troy Murphy, Josh McRoberts and Tyler Hansbrough man the power forward and Roy Hibbert and Jeff Foster mind the post. T.J. Ford can be an effective point guard, when he’s not slowed by injury. As it appears, the Pacers are up against it. The competitive and affordable teams they once put on the floor are a thing of the past. The Pacers are small market and feeling the pain. Coach Jim O’Brien looks to surprise himself with this roster.